The Economy Keeps Getting Better & Better

We mean this in the sense that, the initial reports of recent job increases are being revised upward by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  The Economist‘s “Free Exchange” blog has the story:

The chart at right gives a sense of the magnitude of the error in initial estimates over the course of the downturn (data here). Both lines show the cumulative changes in employment from June of 2009—the final month of the recession. The dark blue line shows the total according to the first reported estimates and the light blue line shows the total according to the data after all revisions. Between the beginning of the recession and its end, initial releases underreported employment loss by roughly 1m jobs. Someone watching only the headline-generating first estimate would have a too-optimistic sense of the state of the job market. In recovery the trend has swung sharply in the other direction. Initial estimates have underreported job gains since the end of the recession to the tune of almost 1m. Cumulatively, the revised data have indicated a labour market that fell harder and rebounded more strongly than the first estimates, which get the lion’s share of news coverage, showed.

The full post is here.

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